Friday, November 6, 2009

Politics-Profiteers and Perception

Good Morning All.

Well, one of the big news items for the last couple of days, is the elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

In both of these elections, political prognosticators were surprised by Republicans besting their Democratic Challengers in Gubernatorial elections.

This immediately caused a convocation of Political Witch-Doctors, soothsayers and Wizards to begin assembling on Television and in the Print Media to tell us, the ignorant public what the Elections mean to us.

A fair answer, I think, is Nothing. That's right, you heard me, Nothing at All.
I think anyone who has paid more than cursory attention to politics for quite some period of time, will tell you that Politics are based on Perception and Pocketbooks.

If for instance, Clyde the Carpenter, say, is out of work. Like all typical people, Clyde immediately looks for somebody to blame for his unemployment......So, Voila....there just happens to be an Election imminent, so Clyde sets grimly out to demonstrate his rage or sorrow, or general feelings of despair by the only means available to him at the moment...His Vote.

The same, I think is true of people all across the Professions, or trades spectrum.

Lyin` Larry the Lawyer suddenly finds himself in the same boat as Clyde , and takes exactly the same course, Vote the current crop of Bums out, and vote in a new crop of Bums.If that strategy doesn't work, Larry can run for office,as being a Lawyer, that would be his natural next step.

Both of these two examples are, I think, based on the main driving force, or motivation(s). Pocketbooks and Perception.

In both cases, these chaps have or are getting near to, a financial crisis, and in both cases, they perceive that the Party in Power is to blame, and therefore cast their vote for change. The fact that they have, in Elections past, also voted on perception, usually without any signs of improvement, doesn't deter them one whit.

Nevermind the fact, that both of these Individuals also voted for a change less than a year ago, got out and worked hard to Elect a New Beloved leader, nothing immediately changed so both are once more in the market for CHANGE.

Nobody in Washington, I think, has been blessed with the sudden onset of common Sense of to bring them to say......"You know, our whole problem is lack of jobs
and furthermore possibly the way to cure this is to start passing some legislation to keep American Jobs in America, and to go a necessary step farther, bring back some of the jobs too many Fat Cat CEO's "Outsourced" to countries offering cheaper (read slave) labor. They , the CEO's took this action for only one reason, and that of course, was to please their stockholders, who thereupon immediately voted these Morons about a Berzillion dollar Bonus, a couple more Executive Jets, and a few more "Vacation" homes.Then the fictional Politician could say, Eureka! I've just had a new idea (a novel moment for a Politician).

So, to my way of thinking, both Politics and the Stock Market are based on Perception, and nothing but. It doesn't matter what Party Label the Winners or losers have after their name, on the Ballot, just boot them out, and try something else, even if it's wrong. This has happened time and time again, and I think always will.

I think this reinforces my long held idea of doing away with Political Parties, and forcing anyone running for any Public Office to have to stand up and SAY what they believe in and will work to achieve, without the Camouflage of a Party Label after their name.

Maybe, also, we should elect our leaders on a Probationary Basis. Tell them in effect, "If you have made no inroads on the Nation's Problems,in say six months, and at least started trying to get things done, "You're Fired". Of course this would require an amendment to the Constitution, but so what, we've tried everything else.

Sounds almost like a Revolution Doesn't it?

I think, although I have nothing but history and personal observations to back up my feelings, that the Stock Market is also based on perception.

After the last Presidential Election the Stock Market started a slow, cautious upswing. The Traders on the floor of the NYSE judged that the people had correctly judged the Economy and were just absolutely (maybe) sure that Happy Days Were Here Again. Only time will tell whether the bellweather indicators, and the Traders were right or wrong, but one thing I can tell you, is that based on History, two things are true of the Stock Market. Each time the Market goes up, inevitably a little later something happens to cause it go down again. It seems this always happens, and I think always will. Now I'm sure that all you Stock Market experts will find a flaw in my reasoning, but take the time to consult a bar or line graph, charting the rise and fall of the Stock Market over the last, say, fifty years, and I think you'll see what I mean. The only time-proven method I know of is, to (starting when you're young, and can afford to do so), invest some money in Blue Chip stocks and just forget all about it. By the time you retire, you will have made a tidy profit, (usually).

I've always tried to keep one thing in mind about the Stock Market. Before you invest, ask yourself the following question...."Can I afford to lose this Money?
If the answer is yes, go for it, but if the answer is no, keep your money in the bank.

Sort of like a Casino, both are gambles, and average person is well advised to stay out of them.

I recall one fellow saying when asked for advice about buying stocks replied " Only buy stocks that go up. If they don't go up, don't buy them".

Corny, but sensible.

Stay Well


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